Dear Mr. Hicks:

I was with great distress yesterday that I read of Congressman Rodriguez' decision to endorse Hillary Clinton for President in the presidential primary. I want to be perfectly clear here: under normal circumstances, Hillary Clinton would be a viable candidate who could win the election and even be a fine president. I fully support the ability of superdelegates to get behind the candidate of their choice under our Democratic primary system. However, it is now painfully clear that Hillary Clinton cannot mathematically win this race. Barack Obama has an insurmountable lead in delegates, the agreed upon metric to win this contest. He is far ahead in the popular vote, her campaign is deeply in debt. Beyond that, she has used destrutive and non-productive racist rhetoric, not unlike that directed toward Mexican Americans by the Republicans in the previous election cycle.

The filing deadline for Texas' March 4 primary has passed, and the House races in Texas are starting to take form. The three races I would expect to be the most hotly contested are two defenses and one Democratic challenge:

-The 10th District, where Democrats Dan Grant and Larry Joe Doherty will face off for the right to challenge Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, who won with an unimpressive 55% against woefully underfunded Democrat Ted Ankrum in 2006;

-The 22nd District, former home of Tom DeLay and current home of Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson, who earned national attention last year by forcing DeLay out of the race and subsequently winning the seat last fall, and;

-The 23rd District, where Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez defeated the Texas GOP's golden boy, former Rep. Henry Bonilla in a runoff election last December.

Here, I'm going to focus on the two seats where Democratic incumbents are facing challenges.

Republicans want to see the 2006 victories in both TX-22 and TX-23 as flukish victories brought on by exceptional circumstances. In the case of TX-22, as I'm sure you know, the supremely crooked Tom DeLay won a closer-than-expected primary victory, looked at his internal polling numbers against Lampson, and bailed out. Unfortunately for poor Tommy, Texas law did not permit the Republican Party to replace him on the ballot, so Lampson got to run against a write-in candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and won with 52% of the vote to 42% for Sekula-Gibbs.

Absent the freakish circumstance of having to field either Tom DeLay or a write-in candidate, Republicans are salivating over the prospect of reclaiming this seat. They have no fewer than 10 candidates in the race, including former Rep. Sekula-Gibbs (she won a special election to replace DeLay, which Lampson did not contest).

The district is very Republican, with a Cook PVI of R +14.5. Bush garnered 64% of the vote in TX-22 in 2004. There are only three Democratic-held seats which are more strongly Republican (TX-17, UT-02 and MS-04).

Still, Lampson stands a good chance. Working in his favor is the clusterfuck of a GOP primary-with 10 candidates in the race, it surely will get ugly. Also, Lampson opted against a U.S. Senate bid this year against John Cornyn, choosing instead to run for reelection. If his own polling indicated that he didn't have a good shot at being reelected, I would think he would have taken a crack at the Senate race.

CQ Politics, which has a good story up on these races, ranks TX-22 as Leans Democratic.

In TX-23, Rodriguez also won a rather bizarre election in 2006, which no doubt fuels Republican hopes that they can recapture the seat.

Rodriguez had run in TX-28 initially, waging a primary battle against Bush Dog Henry Cuellar, and losing narrowly in the March primary. However, he was given new life when the US Supreme Court ruled in June that the 2003 Texas gerrymander violated the Voting Rights Act, partially in the construction of TX-23. This enabled Rodriguez to join a crowded Democratic field against Henry Bonilla, who won 48% in November 2006 to Rodriguez's 20%. In the December runoff, however, Rodriguez defeated Bonilla 54-46.

The odd circumstances of the runoff aside, this is a somewhat Republican-leaning district, but nothing compared to TX-22. Its Cook PVI is R +4.2, Rick Perry narrowly won the district in 2006, and Bush defeated Kerry 57-43.

The cash-strapped NRCC, desperate to avoid having to spend money, managed to recruit a self-funding millionaire attorney, Franciso "Quico" Canseco. He has already dumped over $700,000 of his own money into his campaign, but of course, money can't always buy you love. He faces a primary challenge from Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson.

I know that circumstances were exceptional in 2006, but I do think Rodriguez should be favored to win reelection. Bonilla, after all, was not only a 14-year incumbent, but a GOP rising star, and he lost quite badly in the runoff. It was only the second time in the past 20 years that a Democrat had beaten a Republican incumbent (the other was Lampson's victory over Steve Stockman in 1996). So I think that Rodriguez starts from a position of strength.

CQ Politics also rates TX-23 as Leans Democratic.

Additionally, let us not forget the commanding advantage the DCCC enjoys in fundraising, compared to the anemic NRCC, which should surely help us if and when these races get tight.

I'm typically the last person who will care that a politician votes in lockstep with my beliefs. This rant is not about that.

2006 was a renewal of hope for so many of us. I spent, for me, an astonishing amount of money on Dem candidates last cycle. This does not give me ownership over any candidate that I contributed to. I recognize that.

But what those contribs do for all of us is give us a stake in their decision making - and an obligation to those political figures to be accountable on some basic level.

This is why the decisions of these so-recent Netroots condidates to ratify Bush's bullying on the FISA amendment is so disappointing.

Follow me below the fold for a highly specific chewing-out.

***UPDATE*** Webb volunteers have come forward to corroborate: Webb and his staff ignore communications from his constituents, let alone those from myself. Nice.

Texas has 32 Congressional Districts.  Democrats hold 13 of those seats currently, and are fighting in six more, officially, and another two unofficially. Eleven are completely uncontested Republican seats.

I plan to have a series of diaries detailing each race, lauding our incumbents, heralding our challengers, and seeking potential candidates for the uncontested races.

I have divided the state as best I can, considering the redistricting, re-redistricting, and general clusterf#@k Tom Delay made of our state.  Please don't critique my division, it's just what made sense (sort of) in my head.

I've started in West Texas for a couple of selfish reasons.  1) While geographically huge, it has low population density and therefore few representatives. 2) Democrats are incumbents for two of the three districts.

The first name given by Spanish explorers to the Rio Grande was the Rio de las Palmas, after the extensive forests of sabal palm trees there.  Those forests are mostly gone now, replaced by grapefruit orchards, etc.  Only small patches of it remain, in sanctuaries and wildlife refuges, such as Sabal Palms run by the Audubon Society east of Brownsville, Texas.  The bird life at this southernmost point of the lower 48 has a Central American feel.  

               

                  Plain Chachalaca, 22" long

It's a mecca for birders, who flock to the area from around the world.  And, according to The Monitor, a lower Rio Grande Valley online outlet, National Wildlife Refuges along the Rio have been "fast-tracked" for construction of the Border Fence.  Bulldozing is expected to begin by next year at the latest.

Cross-posted at Texas Kos

Here's something I’ve been chewing on since Ciro Rodriguez kicked 7-term Republican representative Henry Bonilla to the curb in their Texas run-off, the last major election of 2006. And this in a district resulting (indirectly) from Tom DeLay’s 2003 redistricting power-grab. No wonder Republican bigwigs and associated thinktanks and pundits have been vociferous in declaring that their party can’t afford to go the anti-immigrant route.

My question is simple: Where will the nativists go? Not only all the foam-flecked anti-immigration ranters, but their calmer, quieter, but no-less-bent-out, white Middle American counterparts? If the Republican Party hierarchy decides that it simply can’t afford to let the likes of Tom Tancredo be their public face, where will these folks find a home?

A new Anti-Defamation League report suggests that right wing extremist groups like the Klan are stepping into the vacuum. The report focuses on the Ku Klux Klan, but suggests the threat is broader.

First of all, let me preface this by saying I in no way attend to attack Kos, this community, or (in fact) any organizational member of They Work For Us.  These folks (Kos in particular) are the Good Guys, and we're honored to have them as leaders of our movement.  This diary is intended as a respectful dissent, and nothing more.

But after reading the news that Kos has cofounded the group "They Work For Us," comprised of Change To Win unions, trial lawyers' associations, MoveOn, and Daily Kos, I find myself very uncomfortable with the implications of this group and its strategy (to target out-of-touch Democrats in Congress such as Al Wynn, Ellen Tauscher, and Henry Cuellar).

It's hard to explain this dislike of the group.  I've turned this over a lot in my head, and three problems I have with the idea have come to mind.

Right before I leave for my vacation (Christmas in Hot Springs Arkansas and New Year's in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania), let me list the lessons I've learned from the 2006 elections.

Crossposted at my site.

Check them out on the flip.

Much has been said over what the results of the special election run-off in the Texas 23d CD tell us about party voting patterns amongst Mexican-American voters. There is certainly much to say here, as the Latino population in the US is the fastest growing demographic group, and it is only a matter of time before the 'ol demographics bite the Texas Rs in the ass if these voters stay in the Democratic column. Come do some analysis with me after the fold.

Originally posted at TexasKaos.com

Remember last week's poll? Roughly 1/2 of us agreed with the Texas Republican party which warned Texans that Texas would lose political power if Democrats came into office. It was a powerful message to put self-interest over poor performance and corruption. Many of us however felt that we needed to take one step back to move several steps forward.

And then there were some of you who just weren't being realistic. I mean the "Same influence" crowd I could see was being optimistic, but the "More influence" crowd, what were you guys smoking?



Well, looks like you guys in the Same & Better crowd were right. Texas really ain't going nowhere! First Silvestre Reyes lands, over TWO senior members, the chair of the powerful House Intelligence committee and now Ciro Rodriguez and Nick Lampson have landed two coveted committee positions.

Join me on the flip but here's a tantalizing thought: has the National Democratic party signaled, with these three Texan selections in a span of a month, that it's coming back and going to (goosebumps!) FIGHT FOR TEXAS (and the South)?

Just when you thought the outlook in the House of Representatives couldn't be any brighter, there comes word today that our friend Ciro Rodriguez has defeated incumbent Henry Bonilla in a runoff election between the two men...

Howdy folks!

I'm gearing up to see President Carter tomorrow morning in beautiful Austin, Texas and trying to decide what to wear.

That means I've got time to kill, and if you're reading this, then you probably do too.

Ciro's victory last night was absolutely delectable, and it hit the right-wing pretty hard, but there's one last thing we can do to close out this year that will have the wingnuts bawling in their Viagra and hypocrisy cocktails:

Win the 2006 Weblog awards.

Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues her campaign to boost the profiles of newly elected Dems (traditionally the most vulnerable in their next elections) and the 30-Something set.

The Hill:

Pelosi also announced several new members to the coveted Appropriations panel, including Rep.-elect Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) who won a runoff against Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas). Others named to the spending panel are: Reps. Ben Chandler (Ky.), Michael Honda (Calif.), Barbara Lee (Calif.), Betty McCollum (Minn.), Tim Ryan (Ohio), C.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger (Md.), Adam Schiff (Calif.), Tom Udall (N.M.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.).

Freshman almost never score seats on Approps. Incoming Republicans changed that, following their 1994 "revolution," but Dems haven't yet had the chance to adopt that strategy. [UPDATE: And they still haven't. Rodriguez is, at best, a "red shirt" freshman -- i.e., not one at all. He previously served from 1997 through 2004, albeit in a different district.]  Seating Rodriguez there puts him in a strong position to take care of business at home, and solidify his hold on the seat.

Note, too, that Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Tim Ryan did in fact score both Steering & Policy and Approps. Wasserman Schultz also takes over a Chief Deputy Whip spot.

Do not gaze directly at Debbie Wasserman Schultz! If you find yourself between her and wherever she's going, do not attempt to flee! Throw yourself to the ground and remain motionless, and she may spare you!

Other 30-Something standouts rumored to be under consideration for exclusive committees who've now made it official: Kenrick Meek and Artur Davis, both to Ways & Means.

Note, too, netroots favorite Paul Hodes of New Hampshire, who'll be enjoying a ringside seat on Henry Waxman's Government Reform Committee, along with Giant Killer Chris Murphy of Connecticut.

Elsewhere in the stratosphere, check out these rising stars:

The incoming Speaker said she will recommend that Rep.-elects Kathy Castor (Fla.), Betty Sutton (Ohio) and Peter Welch (Vt.) be given seats on the Rules Committee.

The Rules Committee Members, as those of you who've become familiar with our friend Louise Slaughter know, are the guys with their hands on all the strings. They decide what amendments get to the floor, what the rules of debate are, and just about everything else surrounding the terms under which votes in the House are cast. You have got to be absolutely rock-solid to make it to the Rules Committee, so this is a big vote of confidence in Castor, Sutton and Welch.

Being "rock-solid," of course, has two meanings. First, they're going to be rock-solid in their support of the leadership, which has entrusted them with these influential positions. But more than being a dependable vote, they've got to have a knack for the process, and will almost always be people who've got an understanding of procedure. Castor, the daughter of Florida politico Betty Castor, comes from a political family like the Speaker herself. Sutton and Welch are both former state legislators, Welch being the immediate past president of the Vermont State Senate.

It should also be noted that Sutton and Welch replace the dependably progressive Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders, respectively, each of whom were fixtures in their districts before moving up to the Senate. Any questions at home about where the new kids will fit in in the new House ought to be settled with these appointments. Their Rules Committee seats will keep them out of the spotlight on big time bills, but they'll be on C-SPAN quite a bit managing debate on the rules (every bill that comes to the floor under normal circumstances -- or "regular order" -- comes with its own, customized rule setting the terms of debate), and will be the sort of behind-the-scenes fixers that will make appropriators and other legislative powerhouses want to make sure their districts are taken care of.

Last but not least in committee news, there's Rep. William Jefferson, returned to Congress by the folks back home in New Orleans. Jefferson won't be returning to the prestigious and powerful Ways & Means Committee, though. But neither will he be sitting on his hands. Speaker Pelosi's got to respect the will of his constituents, who had to have known what they were buying into when they sent him back to Washington. So pending any further developments with his case, Jefferson will be sitting on the Small Business committee.

In a runoff election held yesterday in Texas’s 23rd District, former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez defeated incumbent Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas), 55%-45%. With Rodriguez’s win, the Democrats now stand to hold a 233-202 advantage when the 110th Congress convenes next month.

As yet one more stunned Republican incumbent begins packing up his stuff on Capitol Hill for the long, arduous move to K Street, let's take stock of what Ciro's victory meant.

• Had you asked me two weeks ago, I would've said Karen Carter wins in LA-02 and Henry Bonilla holds on in TX-23. The opposite happened.
• Tom DeLay's redistricting gambit was a huge disaster.

  This is now the second seat in TX this cycle that has switched hands from the GOP to the Dems as a result of Tom DeLay's re-redistricting efforts. The other seat, of course, was DeLay's. So the net result for the GOP based on DeLay's re-redistricting was all of 2 seats. Was that really worth all the hassle and the subpoenas and courtroom dramas? Many a Republican is probably wondering that same thing tonight, in particular, soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla.

  Subpoenas and courtroom dramas? Heck, DeLay may yet end up in jail over his redistricting efforts. And the heavy-handed efforts on its behalf contributed to disenchanted with the DeLay House and the subsequent Democratic victories (as much as the "culture of corruption" helped). So for a net two-seat gain in Texas, Democrats took the chamber.

  I used to be in favor of tit-for-tat mid-decade redistricting in Democratic-controlled states. I've changed my mind.

• Boy, has the "border fence" issue backfired disastrously on the GOP (same link as above).

  National Journal's Charles Mahtesian, who is the editor of the Almanac of American Politics, observes: "Take a look at these remarkable numbers in Maverick County. Bonilla won it with 59% in 2004, even as Kerry was carrying the county; Bonilla lost it 86-14% tonight. Maverick County is a border county and home to Eagle Pass, where the border fence issue was huge. Bonilla's vote in favor of a fence made an enormous difference here.

  Talk about a mayor who knows his town. In a September newspaper story about the fence issue, here's a quote by Eagle Pass Mayor Chad Foster, 'It's kind of hard to support someone who wants to build a fence,' said Foster, who's also president of the Texas Border Coalition, a group of city and county officials. 'I'd say 95 percent of Maverick County agrees with me.' Turns out the guy was off by 9 points."

  And what's more, the hard turn toward the Democrats for Latinos now poses real threats to the ability of Republicans to rebound. Republicans built their majorities demonizing blacks, Latinos, northeasterners, and gays. And now, all that invective is being hurled right back in their faces. Not all conservatives are in denial about this, as yesterday's fun freeper roundup diary notes.

  I think the problem Republican party is having in Texas is they are losing the Hispanic vote that Bush worked so hard to win over. That is where I think Republican party got hurt is because they are now perceived to hate Hispanics. I am not a big fan of the Senate's or House's plan because I don't think either solves the problem but Republicans can't keep this this up.

  And:

  This is absolutely correct and it is hurting Rs a lot. President Bush won 51% of the Hispanic vote in TX IIRC. But he may be the exception after the rhetoric of certain parts of the party. Hearing people like Boortz talkd about the "Mexican invasion" makes me cringe.

  Bush didn't win 51%, but the point still stands. And then this:

  Hopefully this will get the Tancredo wing of the party to shut the **** up. I doubt it, but I do hope so. Mexican-American men have the highest employment rate of any demographic group, and quite frankly, if someone wants to trek across 500 miles of Arizona desert just to pick lettuce for 35 cents an hour, that's someone we want in this country. Mexican-Americans tend to line up with Republicans on both economic and social issues, but get turned off by the anti-immigration rants. The best thing to come out of a Democratic Congress will be if some bill is passed that creates a path to citizenship for these people, and lowers immigration barriers in general. Of course, the voters this would create could have been Republican voters, but like so many other things from this Congress, it just frittered this opportunity away. I need a beer.

  Here's what Rove knew -- second-generation Latinos were more likely to be Democratic. Naturalized Latinos, however, trended heavily Republican. Bush won recent immigrants in 2004. Liberalized immigration laws and a path to citizenship would've solidified millions of Latinos as future Republicans, grateful for being given the opportunity. Instead, the Tancredo crowd has pushed Latinos into the open arms of the Democratic Party.

  The Hotline blog has more on the problems the GOP is about to have with the nation's fastest growing demographic.

  Rep. Henry Bonilla’s (R-TX 23) loss last night confirms one of the Bush administration’s greatest fears: that a hard-line position on illegal immigration could cause Republicans long-term damage among the growing Latino vote.

  Bonilla was a strong supporter of the tough-on-immigration measures sponsored by the Republicans. He voted for the construction of the 700-mile border fence, and supported Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner’s bill penalizing workers who hire illegal immigrants.

  Based on the election results, it appears Latino voters – even among his previous supporters – turned on him and supported ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D). In Maverick County (95% Hispanic), Bonilla won a miniscule 14% of the vote. By contrast, Bonilla carried the county in his comfortable 2004 win, and President Bush even performed respectably here in 2004 when he won 40%.

  Val Verde County (76% Hispanic) has traditionally been a solidly pro-Bush, pro-Bonilla county. Bush carried it with 59% of the vote in 2004. But Bonilla barely carried it, only winning 51% there against Rodriguez.

  By contrast, the majority-white counties in the district remained strongly pro-Bonilla. Medina County (45% Hispanic) overwhelmingly voted for Bonilla, giving him 68% of the vote. That’s not much of a dropoff from Bush’s 70% performance there in 2004.

  On the day of the election Bonilla’s spokesman Phil Ricks expressed confidence that Hispanics were supportive of Bonilla’s stance on border security. “If you’re a legal citizen, you’re not in favor of illegal immigration. If you go through the process legally, illegal immigration insults you,” he said.

  Hispanic voters didn’t see things the same way. And if Bonilla – the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress – takes this much of a hit among Latinos, Republicans have much to be concerned about looking ahead to 2008.

• This graphic is fun.
• And finally, it's nice to see the year's first netroots candidate, Ciro Rodriguez, finish out the year with a victory built in huge part by the DCCC, which spent $1.5 million on the runoff after taking over every facet of the campaign. We're all on the same side.

Who is Mr. Rodriguez going to replace? Well let’s just say that last nights election means a 100% turnaround in support for queer issues from the representative of TX-23. Bonilla was one of the most homophobic members of congress, scoring a 0 rating with the queer advocacy group Human Rights Campaign.  Bonilla’s active opposition to equal rights is startling. HRC gives us a look at how Bonilla voted in 2005:

I thought I'd see how the losers are taking Ciro Rodriguez's triumph in TX-23.  Looking through the comments at Red State, one can definitely say that we're a little more penetrating in our analysis than they are.  But they did get one thing right:

Losing really, really stinks.

And I suppose there's still a chance to win, but they're all happy over at Kos.

Let me preempt to beltway blowhards, the know-nothings of conventional wisdom, to say that yes, Ciro Rodriguez's convincing victory tonight was a HUGE victory for conservatives.

I won't let logic or reality get in the way of my ridiculous assertions. I'll just pull them out of my ass and state them as fact.

This punditry things is fun.